Funder: Nuffield Department of Population Health and the Oxford Martin School
Programme linked to Livestock Environment and People
Researcher name: Mike Clark
Programme dates: 2021-May 2024
Outline of research: My research focuses on developing a new biodiversity modelling framework – Glob2Loc: projecting global biodiversity trends to identify local conservation actions. The ultimate goal is to project temporal biodiversity trends from multiple interacting human stressors in a way that integrates with the decision-making processes of end users in multiple sectors (e.g. conservation organisations, industry, government, etc), and then further identify how sets of actions implemented in different times and places might have potential to result in biodiversity net gain.
Glob2Loc will project temporal trends in biodiversity outcomes from multiple interactive pressures (starting with agricultural land cover change, agricultural intensification, climate change, urban expansion, and habitat fragmentation) for each population of each species for ~30,000 species (starting with birds, mammals, reptiles, and amphibians) to 2050 at high spatial resolutions (2.25 sq km or less). Focusing on populations as the principle level of biodiversity further gives flexibility for outcomes to be reported using metrics embedded in existing conservation processes (e.g. IUCN Red List, WWF’s Living Planet Index, extinction risk, etc) and then aggregated to the various spatial scales at which conservation decisions are made (local, regional, national, etc).
Throughout the project, I will be co-developing Glob2Loc with end users in multiple sectors, including conservation, sustainable finance, industry, government, systematic conservation planning, and sustainable supply chains. This is particularly important: it will hopefully prevent me from creating a modelling approach that is computationally intensive but unable to inform decision-making, and working with others that account for people and their wellbeing (which Glob2Loc does not do) will help identify conservation actions beneficial for both people and nature.
Objectives: Develop a way to robustly project biodiversity trends from multiple interacting human stressors (e.g. climate change, urban development, food system transitions), and then identify the sets of actions implemented in different times and places that might have potential to result in biodiversity net gain.
Summary of planned activities:
Project outputs: Glob2Loc – a biodiversity modelling framework that can be integrated into the biodiversity decision-making processes of end users.